A new poll suggests that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and her policies are not viewed favorably by the majority of Alberta residents.
The poll, conducted from December 6 to 10 by Abacus Data, says only a quarter of Albertans surveyed think the province is headed in the right direction. A slight majority, 54 percent, said the province is on the wrong track.
“Perhaps most importantly, more 2019 UCP voters think the province is headed in the wrong direction than think it is headed in the right direction,” said David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data.
Coletto called this group “reluctant UCP voters.”
Abacus asked Albertans about four of Smith’s core policies: the Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act, an Alberta police force, private delivery in Alberta’s health care system and stopping school boards from bringing in mask mandates.
Each of these ideas was not supported by about 70 percent of the respondents.
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Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley is viewed more favorably than Smith, according to the poll.
While 43 per cent of Albertans polled view Notley favorably, less than a third view Smith favorably.
The survey also asked Albertans to rate the leaders on a number of traits, such as intelligence, compassion, leadership and being in politics for the right reasons. Notley had a large lead in all categories except for “standing up for Albertans,” where she only had a two-point lead.
The poll gives the NDP an eight-point lead over the VKP in decided voter support.
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However, a striking part of the electorate is undecided – 25 percent. It’s driven by those reluctant UCP voters who can’t quite stand Smith, according to Mount Royal University political science professor Duane Bratt.
“They are very unhappy with Smith, but they can’t quite bring themselves to vote for the NDP. And I think that explains why the undecided is so big. So they’ll say, ‘As bad as Smith is, she’s better than Notley’?”
Bratt wondered if the reluctant UCP voters would go for a “safer choice” or just not vote at all.
A negative perception so early in the premiership causes trouble for Smith, as most new leaders start on a high and decline over time, Bratt explained.
“Smith did not start on a high. First impressions last. It’s going to be hard for her to change the impressions of her,” Bratt said.
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The reluctant UCP voters are more concentrated in Calgary, the poll found. Coletto said they make up about 15 percent of voters in the city.
“We’ve known for a while that Calgary will be the battleground. (Coletto) clearly carved out that there is a large segment of people who voted UCP in Calgary in 2019 who are not going to do so this time,” Bratt said.
The poll indicates that issues top of mind for Albertans right now are cost of living, health care and the economy.
“The two things that Smith has put the most energy into since becoming premier are about COVID and about the Sovereignty Act, and both are low issues for Albertans,” Bratt said.
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The poll suggests that Smith’s focus on the fight against Ottawa may be alienating loyal Conservatives in the province.
Across all voters, nearly three-quarters want the government to focus on basics such as health care, the economy, education and improving roads. Among current UCP supporters, opinions are split about fifty-five. Coletto said this gulf highlights the challenges Smith faces.
“Her government’s initial focus on the Sovereignty Act and battles with Ottawa may find favor with much of her natural party base, but it may be off-putting to those she needs to convince to vote UCP again,” Coletto said.
Coletto said the group that will decide the next election are reluctant UCP voters.
“If the UCP and Danielle Smith think they will win simply by motivating their core base to vote for policy ideas that repel far more voters than they attract, Alberta could wake up the day after the election to another NDP government,” Coletto said.
The survey was conducted with 1,000 Alberta adults from December 6 to 10. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1 percent, 19 times out of 20.
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