Calgary’s job market will likely tighten in 2024: CED

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After red-hot job progress and streams of staff coming to Alberta, Calgary’s financial growth company says enterprise leaders’ perceptions of the town are “softening.”

New information reveals that as financial exercise slows — from cuts to client spending to affordability considerations — enterprise leaders have a extra tepid view of Calgary, coming at a second when few are contemplating expansions into new markets.

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“It’s sort of a combined bag,” stated Brad Parry, CEO of Calgary Financial Improvement (CED). “We take this, and it actually types the premise of our communication underpinning out technique.”

CED’s information reveals 82 per cent of enterprise leaders held a beneficial view of Calgary in 2023 — an eight per cent lower from the earlier 12 months. On the identical time, 59 per cent of the cohort surveyed consider Calgary has a various financial system, an 18 per cent drop.

In the meantime, staff maintained a comparatively beneficial view of the southern Alberta metropolis with much less unstable year-to-year swings: Seventy per cent of staff surveyed seen Calgary in a constructive mild, only a two per cent lower from the earlier 12 months.

Enterprise leaders are naturally extra delicate to modifications equivalent to inflationary pressures, recessionary traits and geopolitical happenings, Parry stated, which explains their drop in confidence.

Slower financial system will possible cool interprovincial migration

After a 12 months wherein Alberta’s interprovincial inhabitants positive aspects hit document highs — even with the ultimate three months of 2023 left to report —economists are predicting migration from exterior provinces to barely ebb this 12 months.

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Via the primary 9 months of the 12 months, Alberta welcomed greater than 45,000 individuals from throughout Canada. (Since January 2022, Alberta has introduced in practically 78,000 from different provinces.)

Mark Parsons, chief economist at ATB Monetary, expects 2024 interprovincial migration to drift between 20,000 and 30,000 individuals.

“I look most carefully on the migration numbers as a result of that’s actually how individuals are feeling, and other people vote with their ft,” Parsons stated, including Alberta has outpaced Canada on job creation and stored the price of dwelling and housing comparatively extra inexpensive.

A number of financial outlooks from ATB, the Enterprise Council of Alberta and Alberta Central undertaking slower financial progress in Alberta for 2024, however above common in comparison with the remainder of the nation.

Relative affordability and a powerful job market are two keys wanted to spice up interprovincial migration, Parsons stated.

Calgary is sporting fewer job vacancies this 12 months than final, Parry stated, however added the town’s rising startup neighborhood is steadily searching for new expertise.

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“From my perspective, we nonetheless see some constructive progress. From a migration standpoint, I don’t know if we’ll see the identical quantity we’ve seen over the past 18 to 24 months,” he stated.

Whereas general sentiment amongst enterprise leaders is dropping, Calgary isn’t shedding to different main Canadian cities. Enterprise leaders who aren’t excited by increasing into Calgary additionally aren’t trying to take their enterprise elsewhere, the report stated.

These findings match expectations which were underlined in a number of experiences over latest months. In keeping with a November 2023 report by ATB Monetary, a couple of third of enterprise leaders are recognizing they should settle for decrease margins to take care of present enterprise, and 35 per cent have been whether or not considerably or very involved concerning the nation’s financial outlook over the following 12 months.

CED specializing in attracting aerospace, agriculture staff

On the flip facet, staff’ view of Calgary continues to be sturdy, the report stated, with about 70 per cent having a beneficial view of Calgary — only a two per cent lower from 2022.

And Calgary stays the highest Canadian metropolis North American staff would think about shifting to, CED stated, incomes excessive marks for affordability, cleanliness and security, and revenue progress alternatives.

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The report permits CED to calibrate its 2024 technique, Parry stated.

“For us, it’s about reallocating the assets into the place that will have the largest affect … we all know that the aerospace sector goes to want expertise, so the crew goes to do a deep dive on, ‘The place are different markets the place that sort of expertise resides, and the way will we go into these markets and allow them to know the worth (proposition) for Calgary?’”

Pursuing agriculture, life sciences and manufacturing staff can also be on the company’s precedence checklist this 12 months, Parry stated.

CED surveyed 1,021 staff and 445 enterprise leaders from Oct. 2 to Oct. 14 of final 12 months throughout 10 cities in Canada and the U.S. The survey’s margin of error is not any larger than plus or minus 2.3 per cent, stated CED. Town-funded group commissioned analysis agency Stone-Olafson to conduct the survey.

mscace@postmedia.com
X: @mattscace67

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