Alberta’s unemployment price rose to six.3 per cent in March, with the province shedding about 3,500 jobs. Nonetheless, the province has added 83,000 jobs over the previous yr.
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Alberta’s unemployment price is monitoring barely above the nationwide common, based on Statistics Canada’s month-to-month job report — partly because of the province’s document inflow of newcomers over the previous two years, economists say.
However economists say that shouldn’t trigger concern for Albertans, partially as a result of the province is contributing to greater than 1 / 4 of Canada’s job development.
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Alberta’s unemployment price rose to six.3 per cent in March, with the province shedding about 3,500 jobs. Nonetheless, Alberta has added 83,000 jobs over the previous yr — greater than 1 / 4 of Canada’s whole acquire over that 12-month stretch.
“I’m not significantly involved in regards to the distinction between Alberta and the nationwide common,” stated Kent Fellows, economist on the College of Calgary. “It’s undoubtedly one thing to regulate, however I don’t suppose this spells doom and gloom for Alberta’s financial technique.”
Alberta’s unemployment price is partially defined by the document migration it has skilled over the previous two years, Fellows stated. In line with knowledge launched final week, Alberta grew by greater than 202,000 residents — greater than 1 / 4 of which got here from different Canadian provinces, making it the biggest interprovincial acquire Alberta has skilled since knowledge grew to become obtainable in 1972.
A portion of these newcomers arrive whereas between jobs, Fellows stated.
“When that occurs, you anticipate a specific amount of friction unemployment, this type of churn — individuals come and so they’re in search of jobs, and so they present up within the unemployment statistics.”
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Rising working-age inhabitants in Alberta’s largest cities
Over the previous yr, Calgary’s working-age inhabitants has grown by 5.1 per cent whereas Edmonton’s has elevated 5.4 per cent, stated Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist at Alberta Central and former economist on the Financial institution of Canada.
The variety of employed Albertans between 25 and 54 has gone from about 1.54 million individuals in the course of the worst of the pandemic in 2020 to just about 1.7 million in late 2023, based on Alberta’s financial dashboard.
St-Arnaud stated it’s a constructive growth for the province to be growing its workforce, nevertheless it’s additionally creating pressure on extra “sticky” sectors reminiscent of housing and hire, the place costs are reaching document numbers.
“The demand aspect is nice, however what in regards to the provide aspect of the economic system? Housing, public companies, infrastructure — these solely regulate very slowly,” he stated.
Whereas March’s job numbers are in the end a fraction of a wider story for Alberta’s economic system, Fellows stated he’ll be watching a number of key markers reminiscent of housing costs to know how the province’s dramatic inhabitants will increase will play out within the economic system long-term.
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“That is one thing now we have to observe longer-term, and now we have to be reasonable about what’s going to occur. It’s an excellent signal of a powerful economic system. However it’s additionally, from a dynamic perspective by time, a difficulty when issues like this occur too shortly,” Fellows stated.
Josh Aldrich, press secretary to Matt Jones, minister of jobs, economic system and commerce, stated in an announcement that Alberta’s job will increase are an instance of “the Alberta Benefit in motion.”
“Alberta’s economic system is main the nation in development whereas creating good jobs for Albertans,” Aldrich wrote, citing the addition of 83,000 jobs to the province over the previous yr.
The Alberta NDP stated in an announcement that the provincial authorities needs to be centered on creating jobs.
“A rising province wants a authorities that’s centered on growing the companies that folks depend on, however the UCP has didn’t ship on diversifying the economic system with extra jobs,” wrote Nathan Ip, the Alberta NDP critic for jobs, economic system and commerce.
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