‘Intense bursts of heavy snowfall’ a possibility for Calgary this week

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Weekend heat within the high-teens is anticipated to provide strategy to chillier temperatures, rain and flurries starting Monday.

Atmosphere Canada meteorologist Rob Griffith mentioned an higher ridge with westerly stream over what has been a “very nice” weekend led to dry and heat temperatures for a lot of Alberta.

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Regardless of being forecasted to be primarily sunny with a excessive of 15 C and low of 0 C, a low monitoring into the prairies from the southwest carries with it a 60 per cent likelihood of showers to the Calgary space late Monday afternoon, mentioned Griffith.

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With precipitation falling and cooling temperatures, he mentioned, “What occurs after that shall be much more laborious to bear — the potential for some snow for Calgary on Tuesday.”

It’s anticipated round 5 to 10 centimetres of snow will fall in Calgary on Tuesday, with increased quantities west of town, presumably inside the 15 to 25-cm vary in locations like Bragg Creek.

“This storm shall be pretty convective, so it is going to be some intense bursts of heavy snowfall as soon as it’s getting going,” Griffith mentioned.

Griffith famous that forecasts stay pretty unsure, because it’s troublesome to get a deal with on precise quantities of precipitation. Many surfaces may be heat sufficient for snow to soften on contact, he mentioned.

Swings in circumstances and temperatures are fairly regular for this time of yr, particularly in southern Alberta and close to the Rocky Mountains, Griffith defined.

“The averages are made up of extremes.”

Dry spells, precipitation unlikely to tip drought or wildfire scales

As a result of dryness many thunderstorms find yourself being increased within the environment, mentioned Griffith.

“Precipitation’s falling from a reasonably excessive degree, it’s dry, typically it doesn’t even make it to the bottom — however there’s nonetheless that lightning taking place,” he mentioned.

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Lightning can hit the bottom and spark wildfires, and dry circumstances elevate the chance.

The province is heading into what some name “spring dip”, the dry interval between the top of April and starting of Might when snow is gone and bushes suck up moisture.

Alberta Wildfire positioned the entire forest safety space of the province on a minimal of a forest advisory earlier this week, citing warning as a result of dry circumstances.

Greater than 1,000 wildfires in Alberta final yr burned about 22,000 sq. kilometres throughout the province, about 5 instances the five-year common.

The 2023 wildfire season was the worst on document for Canada, burning greater than 15 million hectares throughout the nation and forcing greater than 230,000 folks from their houses.

An Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute report discovered that the 1,088 wildfires in Alberta final yr destroyed habitat for threatened species, and can change the make-up of the province’s forests for many years to return.

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Griffith believes heat and dry El Niño circumstances are waning, and mentioned there may very well be a shift towards the other, La Niña by June or August, which usually brings heavy rains to western Canada.

Cumulative precipitation for Calgary from September 2023 to March 2024 was 116.8 millimetres, or about 75 per cent of the traditional of 155.5 mm. He mentioned regardless of these numbers being dryer, they’re statistically regular.

Common month-to-month precipitation is highest in June for Alberta at round 94 mm, and lowest in January at 9.4 mm, mentioned Griffith.

When it comes to droughts or wildfires, he mentioned one heat, dry weekend — or one bout of precipitation — isn’t going to tip the scales a method or one other.

“All of it provides up ultimately, proper? Each system that brings precipitation will assist, however one-off isn’t going to make an enormous change.”

Preparation has been ongoing because the province declared the beginning of wildfire season 10 days earlier this yr, on Feb. 20.

— With recordsdata from Postmedia and The Canadian Press

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