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Premier Danielle Smith has a fame for listening to “the individuals.” Her insurance policies, nevertheless, recommend something however.
At present, three insurance policies dominate Smith’s — and therefore, the UCP’s — political agenda: a provincial police pressure, an Alberta pension plan and municipal political events. Her dogged pursuit of those initiatives raises big questions.
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Every is opposed by an array of policymakers, teachers and consultant organizations, together with governments. Apart from the RCMP, the Alberta Municipalities and Rural Municipalities of Alberta oppose the creation of a provincial police pressure. The federal authorities and different premiers (most of whom are Conservatives) are against an APP. The Alberta Municipalities board of administrators, a corporation representing 265 municipalities throughout Alberta, has referred to as for scrapping the thought of municipal events.
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Every of those insurance policies can also be strongly opposed by common Albertans, even attainable UCP supporters. A ballot performed in early 2023 confirmed 67 per cent of Albertans don’t consider a change to a provincial police pressure would scale back crime. Curiously, rural Albertans — the place the UCP’s political base is strongest — had been most against a change.
Regardless of the federal government spending an infinite quantity on promoting the Alberta pension plan — and refusing to launch outcomes of its publicly paid for consultations — Albertans stay strongly against leaving the CPP. A Leger ballot performed final October exhibits such opposition has elevated, together with amongst UCP supporters. Total, solely 22 per cent of Albertans favoured leaving.
On municipal events, a survey performed by Janet Brown Opinion Analysis in late summer time final 12 months discovered 68 per cent of respondents most well-liked municipal candidates run as people. Two Alberta authorities surveys within the fall of 2023 obtained related outcomes, with greater than 70 per cent of respondents stating their opposition on the multiple-choice part and greater than 80 per cent voicing opposition on the survey’s open reply part.
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The policing and pension plan proposals, if carried out, would additionally come at an enormous price to Albertans. A government-commissioned report in 2021 confirmed that establishing a provincial police pressure to interchange the RCMP would price, at a minimal, $366 million and will take upwards of six years to determine, with an annual working price of $200 million. One other report launched in 2021 put the overall price ticket for a provincial police pressure at between $734 million and $759 million.
Calculating the tip price of an APP is harder as a result of it’s based mostly on altering labour pressure demographics. However the UCP has bought the thought based mostly on a solicited report arguing Alberta is entitled to 53 per cent of the present CPP fund, or $334 billion. Extra sensible calculations recommend a a lot decrease whole. Economist Trevor Tombe contends the determine is probably going nearer to twenty to 25 per cent of the fund, or between $126 billion and $157 billion. Others recommend a fair decrease quantity.
Briefly, every of those proposed adjustments are opposed by numerous organizations and the general public, whereas missing a monetary rationale. The query then is why? What drives the UCP and Danielle Smith to pursue these insurance policies?
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The reply lies with the pursuit of energy — particularly, the centralizing of energy inside Smith’s workplace.
Within the case of policing and pensions, the insurance policies are supposed to take energy away from federal organizations. Within the case of municipal events, the intent is to have the ability to arrange compliant department events to do the UCP’s bidding. If profitable in every of those endeavours, it’s predictable the UCP will search to additional centralize authority by eradicating the ability of different consultant our bodies, akin to nurses, lecturers and docs, whereas maybe additionally searching for an escape from the Canada Well being Act.
Smith has lengthy portrayed herself as a libertarian. However she has a agency perception in what she views as “the great society” and the way it may be achieved.
She is extra ideologue than populist, extra authoritarian than libertarian. The libertarian utopia she seeks to create in Alberta can solely be achieved via coercive means.
Policing, pensions and social gathering politics are simply the beginning factors.
Trevor W. Harrison is a retired political sociologist on the College of Lethbridge and co-editor of Anger and Angst: Jason Kenney’s Legacy and Alberta’s Proper (Black Rose, 2023).
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