A Nenshi leadership would boost voter support for Alberta NDP: poll

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A Naheed Nenshi-led Alberta NDP would increase the occasion’s fortunes amongst voters, with practically 1 / 4 of UCP supporters trying favourably on that prospect.

The Leger on-line ballot of 1,001 respondents carried out March 8 to 11, simply earlier than the previous Calgary mayor introduced his bid Monday to exchange NDP Chief Rachel Notley, reveals 40 per cent of Albertans could be extra more likely to vote for the occasion.

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On the identical time, 32 per cent mentioned they’d be much less more likely to vote for the NDP with Nenshi at its helm.

That signifies the management candidate’s polarizing nature however nonetheless suggests an eight per cent internet constructive, mentioned Andrew Enns, Leger’s government vice-president for central Canada.

That’s the identical benefit loved by the UCP in the identical ballot, which reveals them main their Opposition foes 49 per cent to 41 per cent.

“It was fairly polarizing however he’s not going to harm the NDP. Their supporters will stick with them by and enormous,” he mentioned.

“What’s actually fascinating is that just about 1 / 4 of UCP voters are saying ‘we’ll kick the tires round this man,’ and Nenshi may take a look at that and say ‘I may add some votes.’ ”

The ballot reveals 23 per cent of UCP supporters could be extra more likely to vote for an NDP led by Nenshi, whereas 73 per cent of NDP loyalists indicated the identical.

Former Calgary mayor may make a distinction amongst metropolis’s voters

Additionally important, mentioned Enns, is that Calgary voters, by a 16 per cent margin, could be extra more likely to assist the NDP if it had been led by Nenshi, who served as the town’s mayor for 3 phrases, from 2010 to 2021.

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If that held true till the following provincial election in 2027, it may make the distinction for the NDP within the essential Calgary battleground the place the occasion misplaced some races in 2023 by a slim margin, mentioned the pollster.

“That’s the place you take a look at Nenshi’s management making a distinction, and it doesn’t take lots,” mentioned Enns.

The ballot means that relatively than hurting NDP fortunes in its Edmonton bastion, the ex-Calgary mayor may bolster them.

Nenshi distinctive, probably polarizing as a candidate

Whereas it stays to be seen if the NDP will select Nenshi within the management race that ends June 22, he holds a novel, personalizing enchantment that extends past partisanship, mentioned Mount Royal College political scientist Lori Williams.

“He doesn’t have the ready-made relationships and contacts inside the NDP, so his (profitable the management) isn’t a slam dunk,” mentioned Williams.

“However Nenshi has the flexibility to succeed in throughout divisions . . . he actually makes individuals really feel necessary, in individual and on social media.”

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However Nenshi’s perceived vanity has the potential to drive away voters, mentioned Williams.

The UCP additionally say the high-profile candidate is guided by anger, following his condemnation of the governing occasion as “incompetent, immoral and harmful.”

Nenshi appears to enchantment to Conservative voters

As he kicked off his marketing campaign this week, Nenshi appealed to Conservative voters, insisting their values are extra akin to his and invoking the title of former Progressive Conservative premier Peter Lougheed.

Nenshi’s management would doubtless increase NDP fortunes, mentioned College of Calgary political scientist Doreen Barrie.

And the ex-Calgary mayor could possibly be seen as the perfect individual to capitalize on a demographically-changing Alberta rising uninterested in the UCP’s typically fruitless fights with Ottawa, she mentioned.

“The UCP is interesting to the outdated Alberta who’ve been groomed to assume they’re very totally different from the remainder of Canada,” mentioned Barrie.

Nenshi additionally provides appreciable enchantment amongst those that imagine he’d trounce Premier Danielle Smith in a televised debate, she added.

He’s vying for the NDP management in opposition to Edmonton MLAs Rakhi Pancholi, Sarah Hoffman and Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse, together with Calgary MLA Kathleen Ganley and Alberta Federation of Labour president Gil McGowan.

Leger says the margin of error for the ballot’s whole Alberta pattern isn’t any larger than plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 instances out of 20.

BKaufmann@postmedia.com

X (Twitter): @BillKaufmannjrn

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