UCP should be prepared for a battle with Nenshi

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“Convey it on” was the message despatched by Premier Danielle Smith’s group in Postmedia columnist Rick Bell’s column, after former Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi’s much-anticipated entry into the NDP management race reached its fever pitch.

When you’re a UCP strategist, you’ve causes to be assured if we flip again the clock to Nenshi’s final time period as mayor, however they’ll have to be cautious.

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In the summertime of 2019, in response to ThinkHQ pollster March Henry, Nenshi’s approval ranking collapsed considerably to lower than 4 in 10 Calgary voters, lower practically in half from its heights after the 2013 floods.

Digging deeper into the numbers doesn’t invoke confidence, both. These over the age of 55, a excessive turnout demographic, had a 72 per cent destructive view of him. Dissatisfaction was highest within the suburbs. His base power was within the internal metropolis and northeast, a spot the place the NDP already flexes its muscle.

Huge deal, Nenshi proponents might argue. That was a snapshot in time and he proved himself again and again as a formidable politician when cornered and underestimated.

It’s a superb level, nevertheless it’s essential to think about the problem of being an opposition chief in Alberta.

Whereas we have now bother holding onto premiers for greater than three or 4 years at a time, opposition leaders hit the mud even quicker, with the notable standout being present NDP Chief Rachel Notley.

Opposition politics is tough. It requires fixed coalition constructing with little or no in the way in which of carrots to supply your MLAs. You by no means get credit score for coverage concepts however you do get criticized for being too destructive. And let there be no mistake, there will probably be many longtime stalwarts inside the NDP who will see a Nenshi victory as a celebration takeover by outdated Alberta Social gathering activists who’ve all the time seen the NDP model as too poisonous for mainstream Alberta.

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Will Nenshi have the endurance and persistence to tolerate three years on the opposition benches grinding it out, taking on the celebration’s operations, guaranteeing nominations for the subsequent electoral cycle have his fingerprints on it? Will probably be no cakewalk.

That doesn’t imply he isn’t a formidable opponent. I provide my associates within the UCP a phrase of warning about underestimating him. As mayor, Nenshi remained remarkably sturdy. He successfully maintained his model as “purple” and a “centrist.” Scratch the again of a federal and a provincial conservative voter in a suburban driving equivalent to Calgary Peigan or Calgary North West, and it’s probably a big proportion have a optimistic view of his time as mayor.

His followers are loyal, devoted and will probably be energized by his presence on the provincial stage. He’s a battler and appears to thrive every time he’s behind the 8-ball. On high of that, the NDP’s march from the internal metropolis outward within the final election was a transparent message to the UCP: you may’t take our vote as a right. The NDP has a stable fortress of orange in battleground Calgary and the UCP will have to be on the offensive within the subsequent election to win it again.

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That job could be even more durable in opposition to a former mayor whose largest power is within the internal metropolis and vote-rich areas of the northeast.

This all could also be moot. Nenshi’s delayed entry might have been a pricey error with useful time to promote memberships misplaced. NDP members will finally have their say in June, however the time for conservatives to hug their consolation blanket of a united conservative motion being infallible in provincial politics is over. Nenshi, or whoever the subsequent chief is, could have a united and decided progressive motion at its backing.

So convey it on certainly, however conservatives will have to be at their best possible to make sure Danielle Smith can win that coveted second time period as premier in 2027.

Evan Menzies is a senior strategist with Crestview Technique, who labored for Danielle Smith as director of communications within the Wildrose Social gathering and served because the UCP’s director of communications between 2019-21.

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